Europe must scale up defense spending to deter Russia — experts' conclusions
Europe needs to spend five times more on defense
This conclusion was reached by experts from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Bruegel Analytical Economic Center.
The current situation is even more worrying if Europe aims to be ready for war by 2030, says the study, titled "Ready for War by 2030? European Rearmament Efforts Against Russia."
It explains that, first, Russia continues to outstrip the four European countries in the production of many weapons systems. Therefore, “production would need to increase by about fivefold to decisively tip the balance in Europe’s favor.” Procurement needs to be accelerated and carried out at an early stage.
Second, transatlantic tensions are weakening the strength of US security guarantees. Europe is overly dependent on the US, not only for troops that can be rapidly deployed, but also for strategic resources. While overall arms imports to the US are not excessive, dependence on US systems for critical modern capabilities remains a problem.
Third, military strategy and technology are evolving rapidly. Military planners must modernize weapons and strategy while scaling up existing and effective systems, a major challenge for often slow and bureaucratic procurement structures. Investment in European technology is essential for modernization. European weapons are generally expensive due to low production volumes in a fragmented market; a focus on cost-effectiveness is vital to ensure the adequacy and financial sustainability of the EU’s planned €800 billion in defense spending.
The study notes that although European countries are investing much more in their defense than three years ago, such increased spending will not necessarily lead to improvements in the military capabilities that Europe aims to achieve by 2030.
According to the document, European production of artillery shells and howitzers has increased significantly and now almost meets the requirements for a reliable, autonomous deterrence of Russia. Millions of artillery shells are currently produced, and various European firms produce more than 400 howitzers annually, a significant increase compared to 168 in 2022.
However, production of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, missiles, and combat aircraft remains well below the required level, the authors calculated. They estimate that “tank and infantry vehicle production would need to increase by up to six times to match the pace of Russia’s rearmament.” Similarly, European missile production capacity must be urgently expanded to enhance deterrence capabilities.
Despite a sharp increase in defense spending, Europe's rearmament efforts may fail if the integration of the defense market across the continent does not progress.
Meanwhile, defense research and development funding in Europe should also increase significantly. European countries currently invest about 13 billion euros annually — a small fraction of the $145 billion spent by the United States.
This results in Europe falling behind the US, China and Russia in areas such as drones, missile systems and digital warfare.
The creation of a European innovation agency modeled after the US-based DARPA could help bridge this gap. The aim would be to ensure that defense startups have equal access to contracts as existing players, thereby facilitating the faster deployment of advanced military systems.
Latest news
more news