In today’s newsletter: ​E​urope’s leaders unveiled sweeping new defence spending pledges designed to satisfy ​Donald Trump and signal a new era of militarisation

Good morning. The Nato summit that started last night in the Netherlands could hardly be better timed for Donald Trump: after declaring himself the saviour of world peace as Iran and Israel agreed a tentative ceasefire, he now intends to take a victory lap in Europe. European leaders, for their part, will be desperate for him to feel like he is getting his due.

That is part of why member states signed up to a new defence spending commitment that Trump has long demanded – and part of why the UK is buying a squadron of US-made fighter jets to carry nuclear warheads. But as well as anxieties about the US’s reliability, all of that also reflects Europe’s recognition that it faces a serious new threat to the east.

Iran | A classified assessment of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities says they did not destroy two of the sites and likely only set back the nuclear program by a few months, according to two people familiar with the report. Donald Trump had claimed that they had “totally obliterated” the facilities.

Welfare | Keir Starmer has said the government will not shift on its welfare plans as ministers and party whips struggled to contain a growing Labour rebellion before next week’s vote. By Tuesday night the tally of rebels stood at 123 Labour MPs.

New York | Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist, stunned former governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic mayoral primary, a remarkable upset that sets him on course for the city’s mayoralty. The result will be viewed as a rebuke to the Democratic establishment, with wealthy donors and establishment figures like Bill Clinton supporting Cuomo.

Climate | The UK can reach its net zero targets for 2050, and its interim carbon budgets for 2030 and beyond, the government’s statutory climate advisers have reported. The Climate Change Committee also found that net zero would not destroy the UK economy, instead providing long term benefits.

Health | Tobacco killed more than 7 million people worldwide in 2023. It remains the leading risk factor for deaths in men and ranks seventh for women, according to analysis presented at the World Conference on Tobacco Control.