Allies agreed to raise defence spending to counter likely prospect of Russian remilitarisation if Ukraine war ends

The price was high, but for now, at least, a crisis in Nato has been averted. Donald Trump may like to take the credit for almost all of the 32 allies agreeing to a sharp increase in defence spending, but the reality is that the dramatic change in the Nato mindset was as much brought on by Vladimir Putin.

The Russian president’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was the first jolt, but there is a second uncomfortable reality. If there is a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine, it will mean the deployment of a European-led peacekeeping force in the country – and after a while, Russia’s military might will inevitably recover.