Ukraine can’t intercept everything: Defense Express breaks down Patriot missile output and drone threat
global.espreso.tv
Wed, 09 Jul 2025 21:15:00 +0300

This was reported by military expert and Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov during an appearance on Espreso TV.Russia launched 728 drones at Ukraine"When the enemy launches drones, it’s not just Shaheds. Those 700 drones (on the night of July 9 – ed.) include decoys — so-called Geran drones, made of foam or plywood. These are fake targets, as the Air Force command calls them. So it wasn’t just Shaheds. About 50–60% of them were Shaheds," Katkov explained."And of course, if the enemy holds off on drone attacks for a few days, they can stockpile and then launch a large number at once. As of late spring and early June, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Russia was producing 90 Shaheds per day. It’s likely that number is now around 100. So if they launch only 10 drones one day instead of 100, they can quickly build up a substantial stockpile over a few days, half a week, or a week — and then launch 700 drones at once," he added.Katkov stressed that even the best air defense cannot intercept 100% of enemy targets."For example, Ukraine has the densest air defense in Europe. Take Israel as another comparison — their interception rate is 90–95%. So if the enemy launches, say, 300 Shaheds, even the best system will let through 15–30. And to understand what that means: one Shahed carries a warhead weighing between 50 and 90 kg. So 30 drones could deliver up to 3 tonnes of explosives. We must be ready for the fact that as the enemy increases the number of weapons, Ukrainian air defense is already operating at its maximum capacity. No system in the world has a 100% interception rate — it’s just not technically possible. At best, we’re talking about 90–95%," Katkov said.He also pointed out that Shaheds need to be intercepted using the most efficient and cost-effective means, especially when the enemy is launching over 700 drones in one night."If we look at the statistics, Israel’s Iron Dome — though often said to have a 95% success rate — realistically performs closer to 90%. So we need to be prepared for that. And of course, the goal should be to shoot down Shaheds with the cheapest and most effective weapons possible. You can’t afford to waste expensive systems. Right now, what works economically against them includes mobile fire teams, anti-aircraft guns, and machine guns — and hopefully, anti-drone drones, which Ukraine can produce at scale. That’s likely why we’ve chosen to focus on producing interceptor drones — Ukraine can manufacture several hundred of these per day," he added.How many Patriot missiles can the U.S. produce?Katkov also spoke about the United States’ capacity to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defense system — the only system currently capable of intercepting Russia’s Kinzhal missiles."There are two SAMP/T batteries in Ukraine. According to official data, they will only be able to intercept Kinzhals after being upgraded to the SAMP/T NG version — which won’t happen until 2026 at the earliest. France and Italy are currently working on developing this upgrade. Patriot has had no problems with Kinzhals from the start.""As for the numbers: the standard Patriot MSE missile expenditure against one ballistic target — let’s count a Kinzhal as ballistic — is two missiles. So to intercept seven Kinzhals, you need 14 MSE missiles. According to Lockheed Martin’s official plan, publicly announced by its leadership, the U.S. produces 50 MSE missiles per month," Katkov said.The expert believes this is one reason why U.S. military aid to Ukraine was temporarily paused."If you have to intercept 14 targets daily, a month’s production of MSEs won’t last even a week. That’s part of the reason why the U.S. paused its assistance. On June 24, there was a large-scale missile attack on a U.S. airbase in Qatar. They reportedly fired up to 56 MSE missiles — more than a month’s worth of production. While the exact number wasn’t disclosed, estimates suggest it could be up to 56.""This, clearly, was one of the reasons — if not the main one — why Ukraine faced a temporary halt in arms supplies, including Patriot MSE missiles. These are the realities. I don’t have better news, other than that Lockheed Martin plans to produce 600 MSE missiles in 2024 and 650–700 in 2025. Just to give some perspective: in 2023, the U.S. produced 450 of them," Katkov concluded.On the night of July 9, Russian forces launched a record number of drones and missiles against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses managed to destroy 718 airborne targets.
Latest news
