Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said in a sharply worded assessment published on July 14.Kovalenko said the current Russian campaign is not a new push, but a continuation of offensive operations that have been ongoing since October 10, 2023 — the start of the Avdiivka offensive that followed Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive that year.“Right now, we are in the summer offensive campaign of 2025,” Kovalenko wrote. “And in 60 days, you know what’s coming? That’s right — the autumn-winter phase of 2025–2026. And given the rainy season, frost, and snowstorms, it’s not the best time for active operations — especially when troops are technically unprepared for it.”He described Russia’s campaign not as a fresh operation, but as part of a nearly two-year-long effort with little to show for the scale of human and material losses.According to Kovalenko, Russian forces have gained just 5,574 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory between October 2023 and July 2025 — an area comparable to Brunei or two Luxembourgs. This brings the total occupied territory to 70,014 square kilometers, up from 64,440 square kilometers at the beginning of the Avdiivka offensive.In contrast, Kovalenko claimed, Russia has suffered staggering battlefield losses over the same period, including:756,330 personnel6,315 tanks13,982 armored fighting vehicles23,772 artillery systems“These are numbers comparable to the population of Mordovia or the Amur region — all for a land grab the size of Ingushetia and Saint Petersburg combined,” he said.Kovalenko argued that the scale of the losses has forced Russia to seek military assistance from North Korea — a reflection of the Kremlin’s deepening supply and manpower issues.“By 2024, Russia turned to North Korea for help — because they were critically short on manpower to continue the Kursk operation,” he noted.He said Russia now suffers from a “catastrophic shortage” of heavily armored vehicles, with many frontline units relying on light transport vehicles, motorcycles, buggies, and even Ladas — and, in some instances, donkeys — to carry out operations.“Not because they want to,” Kovalenko added, “but because Russia has completely depleted its Soviet-era stockpiles that once propped up its military-industrial complex.”He also alleged that Moscow is begging North Korea not just for ammunition and shells, but for entire categories of artillery systems — including self-propelled guns, multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), and mortars.Despite its prolonged offensive, Russia has failed to seize any regional capital or fully occupy any of the regions it has targeted since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022, Kovalenko said. The most recent offensive from Avdiivka has pushed Russian forces only 30–45 kilometers deeper into Donetsk region toward Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, and up to 65 kilometers toward Dnipropetrovsk region.“What the Russian army has become over 1 year and 9 months: suicidal troops on motorcycles and bicycles, begging the North Koreans for artillery and assault weapons. And yet we still hear delusions about capturing Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions within 60 days.”“These are the results,” Kovalenko concluded.