The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.Russia’s budget deficit has surged to 3.7 trillion rubles by the end of June, already surpassing the total deficit for all of 2024 in less than seven months. This figure is six times higher than the deficit recorded during the same period last year, signaling a dramatic deterioration in the country’s fiscal health.Analysts warn that while a deficit of 3-5 trillion rubles could be managed in 2025 by tapping into remaining reserves and slashing investment programs, the situation will become “risky” by 2026 due to Russia’s isolation from global financial markets. If the deficit climbs to 5-8 trillion rubles, the Kremlin may be forced to make painful budget cuts, particularly to social spending, and freeze most investment projects. Inflation would likely spike, and the government would struggle to finance its obligations as liquid reserves run dry.A critical threshold looms if the deficit reaches 8-11 trillion rubles. At that point, even drastic cuts elsewhere would not be enough, and the only option to avoid a financial collapse would be to reduce military spending—a move that could directly impact Russia’s war efforts.Currently, Russia’s available reserves to cover the deficit are shrinking. The National Wealth Fund holds just over 4 trillion rubles, and the banking sector is already experiencing a liquidity shortfall. Additional borrowing through government bonds is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive, while the option of printing more money is limited by the financial system’s capacity to absorb it.External factors could make matters worse. New secondary U.S. sanctions targeting countries that buy Russian energy could strip another 2-3 trillion rubles from the budget, pushing the deficit into truly critical territory.With oil prices low, ongoing Western sanctions, and underperforming tax revenues, experts predict Russia’s deficit could reach 6-7 trillion rubles by year’s end—well beyond the “controlled” zone and teetering on the edge of a financial crisis.