The meeting may include Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and possibly Donald Trump. The summit’s goal is to formalize or significantly advance a Russian-Ukrainian agreement to end the war, whether as a freeze or a full resolution of the conflict.This news comes amid Trump’s promises to impose tariffs and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian energy within 50 days, as well as a possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in China.All this creates an information environment filled with talk of “secret deals” and a quick end to the war. However, against this backdrop, Russia continues striking Ukrainian cities, including a recent attack on Dnipro, which casts doubt on the realism of such statements.The reality of the so-called "secret deal" depends on three main factors:1. Putin’s realistic assessment of the situation. How accurately Vladimir Putin evaluates the state of Russia’s economy and military. As a dictator in power for 25 years with broken feedback mechanisms, he receives a far more optimistic picture than reality. His decision to end the war will likely come later than necessary to preserve his regime and country. The only reason that might force him to end the war is a direct threat to his personal power.2. The effectiveness of U.S. negotiations with China and India. The 50-day deadline announced by Trump is aimed not so much at Russia as at its key economic partners.India. As the fastest-growing oil market, India is of interest to both the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries. At the same time, India seeks closer ties with the U.S. to counter its rival, China. India also does not want Russia to become fully dependent on China, as this poses threats to its own security.China. It uses Russia as a “trickster” to weaken the West but does not seek direct military confrontation. Beijing still hopes for a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and is looking for ways to resolve that issue.3. Donald Trump’s determination. Can Trump turn his threats into real actions? Probably yes. This will force Putin to choose: either make concessions, which would show weakness and call into question the war’s feasibility given the huge losses, or seek a compromise.It is unlikely that any real agreement will be reached in August. Putin still believes his offensive can succeed, despite the Russian summer campaign yielding no strategic breakthroughs. He also believes the Russian economy will hold and that Ukraine will fall first.A decisive factor that could prompt Putin toward genuine negotiations might be either a significant defeat on the battlefield or a severe economic crisis in Russia, especially if the U.S. applies pressure and India and China do not intervene.If the world’s three largest economies (the U.S., China, and India) truly apply coercive measures to Russia, Putin will have a “window of opportunity” to start negotiations, as a real threat to his regime will emerge. However, today his level of fear is insufficient for this.Therefore, while some hope can be nurtured, realistic plans for genuine negotiations and conflict resolution should be postponed at least until the end of 2025. That is the earliest time meaningful talks could take place.For now, the safest strategy is to continue living in a wartime mode and closely monitor global diplomacy among the U.S., India, and China, without expecting a quick peace. When it happens, it will be a surprise.SourceAbout the author. Yury Bohdanov, publicist and expert in strategic communications in business, public administration, and politics.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.