BackgroundIt all began with Lavrov’s visit to Beijing, where it’s highly likely the Russians were told that China does not want to enter a major trade war over Russia, especially as Beijing is trying to avoid escalation with Washington at this moment.The 50% tariff imposed on Brazil signaled that Trump may not be bluffing and is ready to take more decisive action.India has also begun to shift and may soon decide to stop buying Russian oil.Russian media outlets have started referencing the revival of the Dmitriev–Rubio negotiation track. It appears Trump is preparing for a large-scale oil blockade against Russia, which could cut Moscow’s oil revenues by at least 25% in the coming months.OutlookUnlike previous negotiation rounds, Putin now has very few options to sabotage the talks via Ukrainian hands. Any Russian demands for Ukraine to give up Kherson or Zaporizhzhia would clearly appear as Moscow itself derailing the process.Putin is currently operating in “short-steps” mode — his main goal, as in previous months, is to buy time. For Russia, any outcomes from potential talks would be seen as temporary arrangements.Putin’s key demand will be lifting sanctions and restoring access to European markets. This explains the renewed activity of Kirill Dmitriev and the Russian media’s push for a proposed five-party deal involving Russia, Ukraine, China, the U.S., and the EU.As for Ukraine, Russian demands are expected to focus on holding elections, reinstating Russian language rights, and giving space to the Russian Orthodox Church. On the frontlines, Russia will likely demand a halt to arms supplies and a ban on peacekeepers — though it knows peacekeepers have little real impact and weapons deliveries will continue anyway. What matters to the Kremlin is making symbolic concessions on these fronts, while pressuring Ukraine over language and religion issues.ConclusionsFor the first time, we may be on the verge of a potentially productive negotiation process — with signs that China is putting pressure on Moscow.If a genuine peace process begins, it may also mark the beginning of the end of Putin’s era.SourceAbout author:  Vadym Denysenko, political analystThe editorial team does not necessarily share the views expressed by the author.