The opportunity we had to end the war was lost due to the Rurikids, the Polovtsians, and the Austrian headquarters. So, what next?1. The fears (hysteria) of many Ukrainians that Trump would betray us turned out to be exaggerated, to say the least.It should be noted right away that the experts who spread this hysteria will now come up with a bunch of new horror stories, but the fact remains: no one betrayed us.2. Russia's idea of a business deal in exchange for territory does not seem to have worked. The parties have agreed to continue the dialogue, but its potential effectiveness is rapidly diminishing.“Putin seems to have bought himself some time. But he has lost the most important thing: mobility. He has sharply narrowed his room for maneuver and is, de facto, rapidly falling into China's embrace. From technological vassalage, he is accelerating his movement toward political vassalage.”3. Judging by all appearances, lower-level negotiations will continue, but they probably have little chance of reaching a logical conclusion. If no results are achieved within two months (which is unlikely), we will move on to the next stage: the issue of war will be decided during negotiations between China and the U.S. In other words, a new window of opportunity for negotiations will open no earlier than the end of the year, and in reality, in the spring of 2026.4. We now have two main questions: will Putin announce mobilization in the fall (probability above 50%) and how will the Russian budget for 2026 be drawn up?“Putin has two options: increase spending on the war at the expense of infrastructure and social services, or leave spending at 2025 levels. The capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex and army will depend on this.”5. Sanctions against India will take effect, and Putin will face a loss of one-third of oil revenues by the end of the year (in other words, secondary sanctions will affect the Russian economy).SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.