Soldiers returning from local wars have repeatedly become the driving force behind coups: in 1980 in Turkey, in 1974 in Portugal, in 1952 in Egypt, and in 1936 in Spain. Prigozhin's rebellion is in the same series. He was stopped only by the fact that Prigozhin was more about money than about power. Therefore, the return of the army from the front poses a real threat to Putin's regime.In the conditions of the totalitarian dictatorship built by Putin, without democratic elections, a change of power is possible in only two ways: either as a result of a coup or through the natural death of the ruler. Last week, we learned that Putin plans to live to be 150 years old—transplanting organs and filling himself with Botox up to his ears. 150 years is about 12 presidential terms in Russia. From the perspective of eternity, it's not that much. But this means that of the two options, a military coup looks like the most realistic way to change power in Russia. And every day of this war only increases the probability of such a scenario, as hinted at by Reuters' sources.Already, we see how Putin's "heroes," having returned to Russia, kill, rape, and maim daily—that is, they continue to do what they did in the war in Ukraine. Their mass return increases the risks not only of a rise in crime but also of Putin himself losing power. Logically, it is safer for him to keep the "orcs" at war than near the Kremlin walls.Any end to the war will present Putin with a series of painful questions. Russia started it under the slogan of a "struggle for sovereignty," but has actually found itself in global dependence on China. 10 years ago, Senator John McCain called Russia "a gas station masquerading as a country." Today, one could clarify: it is a Chinese gas station. The question "is this what we fought and died for under Ukrainian drones?" (assembled from Chinese components) could well become a trigger for the military personnel who will return home after the war ends. And then a small spark will be enough—like the ban on social media in Nepal that caused an uprising—and the system, which seemed strong just yesterday, will crumble as if it never existed.Putin is an ordinary military pensioner, obsessed with history and conspiracy theories. With his character, he assesses the risk of a coup at the hands of his own "warriors" as extremely high. In these conditions, continuing the war is for him a simple guarantee of preserving his power and life.That is why no "exchanges of territory" will force him to stop. For Putin, NOT fighting is more dangerous than fighting. The logic is simple: he will only stop where he is stopped. The only question is whether it will be near Kramatorsk, Lviv, Warsaw, or the English Channel.About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian MP.The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.