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For China, ideal scenario in Ukraine is end to hostilities

global.espreso.tv
Thu, 30 Oct 2025 15:42:00 +0200
For China, ideal scenario in Ukraine is end to hostilities
"Ukraine was discussed very seriously. Xi Jinping plans to help us, and we will work together on the Ukrainian issue," Donald Trump stated after today's meeting with the Chinese leader.It sounds encouraging, of course. But over the past six months, everyone has grown accustomed to the American president rating virtually any meeting a "12 out of 10." It feels as though if you use quotes from his Truth Social posts as Lego bricks, you could build almost anything. Therefore, facts are essential for drawing conclusions.As of now, it is known that there were no joint statements from the U.S. and Chinese leaders following the meeting. There is also no information about any signed documents. We only know about the discussion of the war in Ukraine from the American president's words, but no one from the Chinese side has commented on it."In reality, the Chinese do not need to significantly change their position on the war. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs regularly issues the right words about the need to end it and respect sovereignty and international law, so they might say something similar now."The only question is whether today's meeting can change anything regarding the supply of Chinese technical products to Russia, which allows it to continue the war. A few months ago, the head of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China is interested in Russia not losing the war. But this does not mean it is interested in a Russian victory. A defeat for Putin in the war would almost inevitably lead to turmoil in Russia—with a civil war, the country breaking apart, and a loss of control over nuclear missiles.Even in a relatively "optimistic" scenario where Putin is removed from power as a result of losing the war, other, more pro-Western and therefore anti-Chinese politicians would take his place. China, of course, does not want this on its doorstep, and says so directly."On the other hand, China is not enthusiastic about the continuation of the war, as it negatively affects both economic supply chains and political relations with the EU and the U.S. Almost every dialogue with Western countries, including today's meeting with Donald Trump, includes the issue of Ukraine and Russia."Under these conditions, the ideal situation for China is for the war in Ukraine to end and hostilities to cease, but for Russia to maintain its current political regime and remain in isolation. This is not such a difficult task, as it essentially involves ensuring a controlled withdrawal of Russia from the war that would preserve Putin's regime but not lead to a significant normalization of relations with the West. That is, stopping the war along the front line, which Trump insists on, and the compromise to which Zelenskyy has agreed, also aligns with China's interests.Of course, the absence of facts opens up a large field for manipulation. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of negotiations between China and the U.S., a brutal war is raging, in which Putin continues to kill thousands—both Ukrainians and his own Russians. And if the U.S. and Europe can engage China to, as the American president says, "work together to end this war," it would actually be in the interests not only of Ukraine but of China itself.SourceAbout the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, Ukrainian lawmaker.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.
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