Putin’s policy is rooted in war — China’s, rather in peace
global.espreso.tv
Fri, 31 Oct 2025 15:58:00 +0200

For Trump, this dialogue is definitely more promising than trying to negotiate with the non-negotiable Putin. Although China is not a democracy and has many complex ambitions, Xi's way of thinking is much more rational than the crowds of 'Pechenegs' and 'Burevestniks' jostling in the Russian dictator's head.Putin bases his policy on war, while China focuses more on peace, albeit somewhat by Chinese rules. Putin believes that wars and global instability are his chance to change the world in his favor. In contrast, for Xi, global instability or major wars are a risk to the Chinese economy, which is tied to global markets.This divergence is a chance for Trump to negotiate separately with China. It's a shame that so much time was lost before Trump understood this. Until now, he constantly emphasized that China, not Russia, was the main problem for the U.S. Considering China's potential and capabilities, this seems to be true. But Putin's inability to negotiate breaks the usual logic of international relations.The second piece of good news is that Trump spoke separately with Xi about Ukraine. And he announced this himself. This means he intends to make the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war part of a large, perhaps the largest of his term, geopolitical agreement with Xi Jinping.The bad news is that the negotiation process between the U.S. and China will be long. There will be too many topics for discussion between the countries before they can seriously talk about the Russian-Ukrainian war, the end of which will be put on the bargaining table by China.In return, China will want, at the very least, to participate in European security processes with an eye on unhindered access to the European market. And Trump will most likely agree to this. If only because China is truly capable of influencing Russia and is interested in a peaceful Europe.As I have written many times, in the new year we may see a new bipolar world, where China, although not equal to the U.S., will not be second in status either. And Europe in this game will simply be Trump's support group. Ukraine will become the eastern fortress of the West, and Russia will be China's younger brother.SourceAbout the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.
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