Polymarket makes money on war

As of today, the total stakes are over $100 million.

Users try to predict the further development of key events on and off the battlefield.

For example, the focus is currently on:

• possible final battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnograd;

• potential talks between Trump, Zelensky and Putin;

• the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being adopted,

• total duration of the war;

• Will Zelensky remain the president of Ukraine in the near future?

Journalists drew attention to the fact that Polymarket users almost do not believe in a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2025 — only 5% bet on it.

As for the long-term perspective, the chances are already increasing — about 23%.

There is a separate market on Trump's role in the Russian-Ukrainian war: "Will Trump end the war within 90 days?" The current probability there is less than 1%, although this market had one of the largest trading volumes — about $57 million.

What is important to understand is that forecasts on Polymarket should not be regarded as exhaustive analytics — they are just a kind of indicator of the mood of people from different parts of the world.

So de facto this can have an impact on the political decision-making process.