Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia will not improve, even if the media shows a reconciliatory image, as Moscow will eventually act againThis opinion was expressed by Vladimir Kopchak, the head of the South Caucasus branch of the Center for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies, during the "World and Us" project with Yevhen Magda."Even if the current conflict between Baku and Moscow in the media dies down, the toothpaste can't be put back in the tube. It won't happen, even if an image of understanding is shown. Sooner or later, Moscow will do something, and it will resurface. Even in the most peaceful scenario, something could happen. I agree with your logic that Moscow should behave cautiously, but this is not their style. They feel humiliated after their troops left Karabakh. They feel humiliated by the fact that Nikol Pashinyan managed to push for bilateral negotiations with Ilham Aliyev in a peace process format," he said.Kopchak also noted that Russia feels humiliated for multiple reasons."They feel humiliated because Baku didn’t just swallow the downing of a civilian passenger plane in December last year, where 38 people were killed. They feel humiliated because Baku simply demanded a human response. Some people ask why the reaction was so harsh to the downing in Baku, but more people died in Yekaterinburg. This is the same process. It's a direct consequence of a crash or an attack in the sky over Grozny," he added.According to Kopchak, Russia is now increasing pressure on Azerbaijan, and Baku is responding in a measured and occasionally mirrored manner, given its ability to do so."Everything is just beginning. And if we talk about the regional security context or even the broader geopolitical context, Moscow's main problem is that it seems the Kremlin is now acting in a hybrid way. After the synchronized visits of Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan to Turkey, the Kremlin has lost control, as seen in Yekaterinburg and not only in Azerbaijan. Another topic for discussion is the revival of so-called anti-Maidan activities or a coup attempt in Armenia," Kopchak added.What is happening between Russia and AzerbaijanOn June 28, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan urgently contacted the Russian authorities. The reason was the events of June 27 in Yekaterinburg (Ural region, Russia).On June 30, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted a special operation that resulted in the detention of two FSB agents who worked at Russia’s Sputnik agency — a branch of the Rossiya Segodnya media group in Baku. In response, Moscow summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador.On July 1 in Baku, following the Ministry of Internal Affairs operation at the Azerbaijani branch of Russia’s propaganda outlet RT Sputnik Azerbaijan, executive director Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov were arrested. They were accused of being FSB agents.Also on the same day, Azerbaijan’s law enforcement and judicial system detained, interrogated, and held court sessions to determine pre-trial measures for eight Russian citizens.On July 2, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russian ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov and issued a formal protest over unfriendly actions that "damaged relations between the two countries."On July 4, it became known that Elshan Ibragimov, head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Moscow region, had been stripped of Russian citizenship.Plane crash in KazakhstanOn the morning of December 25, 2024, a passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan’s Aktau, located on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. The flight had initially been headed from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Russia. Thirty-eight people were killed in the crash.Preliminary investigation data suggested that the crash was caused by a Russian "surface-to-air" missile.Azerbaijani Airlines and Azerbaijan’s Minister of Digital Development and Transport Rashad Nabiyev cited "external influence" as the probable cause of the crash.On December 27, 2024, White House Communications Advisor John Kirby stated that the U.S. had evidence suggesting that the Azerbaijani Airlines plane was downed by a Russian air defense system.Russian officials claimed that Ukrainian drones attacked Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz that morning, and "Russian air defense systems repelled the attacks."On December 29, 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly accused Russia of downing the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer E190 plane.On the same day, the investigation commission, led by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport Marat Karabaev, decided to send the flight recorders to Brazil.