Serhii Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, said this on Espreso TV.“It is likely that there will be military exercises by the Russian flotilla or ground maneuvers near the borders with Azerbaijan. At present, Russia’s Minister of Emergency Situations—a former bodyguard of Putin who has personal connections with the Azerbaijani leadership—has arrived in Baku. Clearly, the sides will try to reach an agreement,” Danilov believes.According to him, there are now rumors of a possible exchange. This concerns Azerbaijanis detained in Russia who, despite serious charges that could have led to criminal cases and possible imprisonment, may be deported without trial.“In other words, there is a 60% chance that the conflict will be temporarily ‘swept under the rug,’ and a 40% chance that it will continue,” Danilov suggested.What is happening between Russia and AzerbaijanOn June 28, 2025, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan urgently contacted the Russian authorities. The reason was the events of June 27 in Yekaterinburg (Ural region, Russia).On June 30, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted a special operation that resulted in the detention of two FSB agents who worked at Russia’s Sputnik agency — a branch of the Rossiya Segodnya media group in Baku. In response, Moscow summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador.On July 1 in Baku, following the Ministry of Internal Affairs operation at the Azerbaijani branch of Russia’s propaganda outlet RT Sputnik Azerbaijan, executive director Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov were arrested. They were accused of being FSB agents.Also on the same day, Azerbaijan’s law enforcement and judicial system detained, interrogated, and held court sessions to determine pre-trial measures for eight Russian citizens.On July 2, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russian ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov and issued a formal protest over unfriendly actions that "damaged relations between the two countries."On July 4, it became known that Elshan Ibragimov, head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in the Moscow region, had been stripped of Russian citizenship.