Tomahawks could change the course of the war against Russia, according to Ukrainian military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko. In his analysis for OBOZ.UA, he explains what makes these missiles unique and whether Ukraine has a realistic chance of acquiring them.Recently, Western media reported that former U.S. President Donald Trump supposedly offered to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles to ramp up pressure on Moscow. Trump later denied this claim, but knowing the 45th president’s unpredictable nature, what he says today might change tomorrow. So, the expert suggest to take a closer look at how realistic it is for Ukraine to use these missiles and why they would be so valuable.What are Tomahawks?The Tomahawk is the U.S. military’s primary subsonic long-range cruise missile. Developed between 1971 and 1980, it entered service in 1983. Since then, it has undergone continuous upgrades to meet evolving military needs.There are at least eight known Tomahawk variants, differing in warhead types (high-explosive, cluster, nuclear), launch methods, and mission profiles (tactical-strategic, anti-ship), as well as technical specs.However, all share similar baseline capabilities: a flight range of 1,250 to 2,500 kilometers; a cruising speed around 880 km/h; and warheads ranging from a 340–450 kg high-explosive payload to cluster munitions containing 166 submunitions.How Ukraine would benefit from TomahawksCurrently, Ukraine lacks missiles capable of striking deep into Russia’s rear areas to hit military and industrial targets 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers or farther away. While Ukraine operates some long-range strike drones, their warheads are generally small—around 50 kg of explosives. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense tried to boost drone payloads by adding aviation bombs (about 100 kg), but this still falls short for large-scale destruction.Imagine, though, Tomahawks carrying 450 kg warheads—launched in volleys of three or four or more. The chances for Russian industrial targets to survive would be minimal.Another vulnerability of drones is their relatively slow speed. Tomahawks, flying low and terrain-hugging, can bypass older generations of Russian air defenses almost effortlessly. Given Russia’s air defenses are already strained and battered by Ukrainian drone strikes, Tomahawks would be highly effective.With these missiles, Ukraine could target major Russian military-industrial complexes deep inside Russia, such as the Shahed-136 production facility in Alabuga (about 1,300 km from the Ukrainian border) and the “Kupol” plant in Izhevsk. Tomahawks equipped with cluster warheads could also regularly strike Russian military airfields like Savasleyka, home to MiG-31Ks equipped with the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile.What are Ukraine’s chances of getting Tomahawks?Tomahawks are the U.S. military’s primary subsonic long-range tactical and strategic cruise missile, with ranges up to 2,500 km. Despite these impressive specs, Ukraine faces export restrictions on missile range capped at 300 km.Even previous missile deliveries to Ukraine, like Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG and ATACMS, with real ranges exceeding 500 km, were supplied in export-limited versions with 300 km maximum range. It’s unlikely Ukraine will receive an exception for Tomahawks when it hasn’t happened before.Moreover, official restrictions on strikes deep inside Russia remain. Despite talk in 2024 about lifting limits on strikes inside Russia, Ukraine hasn’t carried out strikes on places like Voronezh or Tula. So the restrictions still stand.Another challenge: Tomahawks are primarily sea-launched missiles, fired from submarines or surface ships. If Ukraine were to receive Tomahawks, it would likely also require receiving a submarine (like an Ohio-class) or a missile destroyer (like an Arleigh Burke-class)—a highly unlikely scenario.However, there’s a twist: The U.S. has been developing a land-based launcher for Tomahawks called Typhon. Currently, only two experimental batteries exist, each with four launchers. These are test units still undergoing trials and not yet in full production. So it’s questionable whether Ukraine could be supplied even with a limited number of these land-based launchers.If deployed in a secure area like Transcarpathia, Typhon launchers could still hit targets as far as Tatarstan or Arkhangelsk. But would U.S. and NATO partners risk providing such a capability? Probably only if Donald Trump “really loses its temper,” to put it lightly.Interestingly, recent reports say Germany’s Bundeswehr has requested to purchase Typhon systems from the U.S.—coinciding with statements that NATO countries will now buy weapons for Ukraine directly from the U.S., and rumors about Ukraine possibly receiving Tomahawks.So, is there still a 1% chance?ConclusionTomahawks would be incredibly useful to Ukraine, potentially shifting the battlefield balance and countering Russia’s superior deep-strike capabilities.Yet despite the critical need, delivery of Tomahawks to Ukraine seems unlikely. Bureaucratic hurdles, export restrictions, political considerations, and the complexities of deploying these systems stand in the way.For now, Ukraine can only watch these obstacles unfold—rather than count on bold and timely decisions to supply this game-changing weapon.The only means for launching Tomahawk missiles that Ukraine could use if it were to receive such weapons is the Typhon launch system.