Russia produced one aircraft per year

Western sanctions have blocked access to foreign aircraft and spare parts since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. With a fleet of more than 700 aircraft dominated by Airbus and Boeing models, Russian airlines are now forced to seek critical components through complex and indirect import routes.

There is no component base, no technology, no manufacturing capacity, no engineers. It would take years, if not decades, to build all of this from scratch.

Recent serious incidents have underscored the urgent need to maintain the fleet. In late July, a Soviet-built An-24 aircraft, built in 1976, crashed in the Russian Far East, killing all 48 people on board. Days later, national carrier Aeroflot grounded dozens of flights after a massive cyberattack.

The aviation sector's struggles to achieve self-sufficiency are part of a broader industrial slowdown. According to purchasing managers' index data, Russia's industrial production fell in July at the fastest pace since March 2022, and industrial growth continues to slow.

High interest rates have contributed to a decline in car production, bankruptcies in the coal sector, a slowdown in exports of goods such as metals and petroleum products, and missed aircraft production targets, officials and businesses say, contributing to a slowdown in economic growth.

Industry will be hit faster and harder due to tight monetary policy, said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment company Astra Asset Management, warning that the industrial sector is on the verge of recession.

In the first 11 months of 2024, 208 "incidents" involving foreign aircraft were recorded in the Russian Federation. This is 29% more than in the same period in 2023, when 161 cases were recorded.

Russia was supposed to produce over 100 aircraft in three years. In reality, only seven were produced during that time.