The main principle of the U.S.Before discussing the current situation, we must understand that the main principle of American diplomacy boils down to this formula: “Resolving the issue is not the goal of diplomacy. The main goal is to achieve a balance of great systems.” Even Trump, with his unpredictability, will adhere to this principle.Borders and threatsAt this point, it seems Trump’s proposals assume that the line of demarcation becomes the new border. This raises two unanswered questions. First: will the Russians agree to this? Second: the absence of guarantees, which now appears to be a fait accompli that no one will discuss—at least for now."Ukraine has already stated that its borders are defined in its Constitution. Russia will also not change its constitution. In other words, even if effective negotiations occur, no guarantees will be given."SanctionsThe format for lifting sanctions is a key issue in the negotiations. Russia appears to be promoting Dmitriev’s idea of creating joint trading houses that, under the American flag, would sell sanctioned Russian goods in the EU and other unfriendly countries. The U.S. proposal is still unclear. However, lifting sanctions is a basic trigger for the EU."The EU’s position is very simple: continuing the war is more acceptable than lifting sanctions. But the EU is currently forced to follow the U.S. lead. How to get out of this triangle remains unclear."However, I want to emphasize: it is not the territories, but the sanctions that are the "golden key" to effective negotiations.Army, language, faithThe Russians will 100% raise the issues of language and church, and if the first two issues are resolved positively, they will pressure us to adopt corresponding legal changes.Additionally, we will 100% get a guarantee that we will not join NATO in the foreseeable future. The basic red line for us is preserving the defense-industrial complex and weapons supplies. In my opinion, this is our main issue, and here we must seek guarantees.Election logicWe have long been living in election logic, which only intensifies. If the Trump-Putin negotiations prove successful, we will face severe internal chaos with all the related consequences. Although there’s no need to wait for the negotiations, in the coming week we will see a flood of information attacks from all sides.What if the negotiations fail?Trump will continue imposing secondary sanctions.China’s playChina is definitely not interested in these agreements. For Beijing, it is important that Russia makes peace not through negotiations with the U.S., but under pressure from China. However, China is unlikely to influence Putin’s position right now.It is also worth noting that Putin fully understands he is at a bifurcation point. Either he agrees to Trump’s proposals or takes a significant step toward political vassalage under China. In my opinion, this is the only reason why Putin might theoretically accept Trump’s proposals.But, as always in such cases, everything can fall apart at any moment. August 15 is still far away.SourceAbout the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.