Military analyst Vasyl Pekhnio said this on Espreso TV.“The very fact of the exercises in Belarus — there are four different interpretations of what to watch for and how they could unfold. First, yes, this could be a threat to our northern borders. Any concentration of Russian troops along the northern border is always a threat, and we must treat it as such,” he said.Pekhnio stressed that under current conditions, with accurate monitoring of the situation, Ukraine would be able to respond.“The second is, of course, a threat to our Western partners, but this is unlikely. For us, it’s a threat, but for our Western partners, for the Suwałki Gap, the Baltic states, and Poland, these are unlikely scenarios. The third scenario could be the full occupation of Belarus — this also cannot be ruled out, but it is an unlikely scenario,” the analyst added.He noted there is a most likely scenario, supported, for example, by the intelligence services of Latvia.“They believe this could be a form of covert mobilization in Russia, where reservists are brought to the exercises not under the pretext of going to the ‘special military operation,’ but under the guise of participating in safe drills in friendly Belarus. There, they could gather a certain number of troops and thus instantly have a mobilized resource at their disposal,” Pekhnio said.The analyst added that this would then raise another question: where would they use it?“They could, just as the president says, move it from the Kursk region to somewhere like the Novopavlivka sector, or they could use it as a kind of cudgel over the Baltic states and simply continue the information bombardment by demonstrating the size of a certain troop grouping. That’s why I consider this scenario highly likely — as an additional mobilization element for the Russian Federation,” he concluded.