For months, the situation in the Serebriansky forestry had remained unchanged: Russian troops attacked but without success. This wooded area, covering more than 107 hectares, stretches from the occupied city of Kreminna to the border with Donetsk region. Since autumn 2022, after Kreminna fell to Russian forces, the front line has run through the forest.Until recently, Russian troops used the dense forest to conceal equipment and approach Ukrainian positions undetected. Fighting there has now moved closer to Siversk — a strategically important city that controls access to the entire region. In recent days, the situation has shifted unfavorably for Ukrainian defenders, as Russian forces achieved limited tactical gains in several areas of the forestry.Units of Russia’s 164th and 169th motorized rifle brigades continue advancing inside the forest toward the confluence of the Chornyi Zherebets and Siverskyi Donets rivers, in the direction of the village of Dronivka. This complicates the position of Ukrainian troops defending further east along the Siverskyi Donets, even beyond Serebrianka. Current developments suggest Russian forces may soon fully occupy the forestry up to the Chornyi Zherebets River.The most difficult situation now is in the forested area on the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets, from Hryhorivka to Dronivka, with additional pressure from Russian advances toward Yampil.At the same time, Russian troops have intensified offensive actions near Serebrianka in Donetsk’s Bakhmut district. They control high ground near Bilohorivka, creating challenging conditions for Ukrainian defenders. Moscow’s main objective remains eliminating Ukraine’s presence in the forest and pushing toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Western intelligence reports note a shift of fighting westward, toward Siversk, which is expected to become the scene of the fiercest battles in the coming weeks.Siversk, situated on the Bakhmutka River and its tributaries, is surrounded by resource-rich terrain — including deposits of dolomite, quartz sand, chalk, and clay. This economic significance adds to Russia’s military motivations.Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi recently reported growing Russian pressure in northern Donbas and on the Lyman front. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian troops launched 17 attacks since the start of the day near Novomyhailivka, Hrekivka, Kolodiazi, Novoselivka, Zelena Dolyna, and toward Yampil and Serebrianka. Ukrainian forces continue to put up heavy resistance, conducting counterattacks when possible.Analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets of the Information Resistance group reported that Ukrainian counterattacks eliminated a Russian tactical penetration near Katerynivka–Hlushchenkove and that defenders continue to hold Karpivka and Ridkodub. There are also reports that Ukrainian troops either retook or pushed Russian forces out of Hrekivka, leaving it in a contested “gray zone.”On the Siversk axis, Russian artillery fire has intensified, with daily shelling rising to 170–180 strikes. Moscow is attempting to outflank Siversk via the forest to gain fire control over Sloviansk with tube artillery.The Lyman sector remains critical in the broader Russian offensive. Increased Russian pressure on Siversk poses a threat to the eastern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk defense. Losing Siversk would complicate Ukraine’s defense of the entire region.Sloviansk itself carries both symbolic and military weight: Russia lost the city to Ukrainian forces in 2014, a major blow for the Kremlin. Beyond symbolism, Sloviansk anchors Ukraine’s fortified defensive line.Military expert and retired Ukrainian colonel Oleh Zhdanov noted that Russian forces are trying to bypass Sloviansk and Kramatorsk along the Donetsk administrative border. “They understand they cannot take these cities, even if they flatten them,” Zhdanov said, adding that Russia seeks a large flanking maneuver. Still, he emphasized that the Lyman axis remains one of Ukraine’s strongest defensive lines.Despite some tactical Russian successes, analysts believe Moscow lacks the ability to achieve strategic breakthroughs in the region due to Ukraine’s strong defenses and the difficulty of storming industrial centers. Political factors also weigh on the battlefield: international pressure on Russia has slowed its offensive pace, while Ukrainian successes on key fronts have prevented Moscow from establishing buffer zones up to 20 kilometers deep.Exclusively for EspresoAbout the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chairman of the "Prava Sprava" NGO.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.