The author of the Resurgam channel and foreign relations expert shared their analysis of the processes in the Netherlands' election race.The Netherlands has provided more than €9 billion in military aid to Ukraine, excluding financial and humanitarian assistance, as well as its share of EU programs supporting Ukraine. In terms of total aid, the Netherlands surpasses large countries such as France, Poland, Spain, and Italy, and is four times ahead of Spain and Italy.In November 2023, the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, won the early elections. However, as the so-called “Dutch scenario” shows, election victory does not guarantee power without sufficient results or coalition allies. Wilders had to make concessions on multiple issues, including maintaining aid to Ukraine, and the most significant setback was giving up the prime ministership to Dick Schoof.Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof later announced his resignation after Wilders' PVV left the coalition, effectively breaking it up. Wilders’ strategy now is to “reshuffle the deck of political parties in parliament” to gain power on the back of high ratings. To achieve this, PVV needs to significantly exceed the 24% it received in 2023.However, events are not unfolding as Wilders hoped. While he initially viewed the VVD (Rutte’s former party) and others as main competitors, a new contender is rising in the Dutch political landscape.From the ashes of failure to leadership prospectsThe Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), led by young Henri Bontenbal, is making a remarkable comeback. After its disastrous 2023 result — 3% of the vote and 5 seats, the party’s worst performance in 50 years — CDA now shows an upward trend in polls, gaining 1.5 to 2% support monthly. The party has grown from 3% to 15.3% and is now the second most popular party, closing in on Wilders (20%). Wilders struggles to surpass the 24% benchmark he achieved in 2023.CDA’s rise reflects declines in the VVD, Omtzigt’s New Social Contract party (which eventually disbanded), and a partial drop in Wilders’ support. Wilders “did not miscalculate that voters would continue to lean toward the right, but he underestimated his competitors, who picked up the support he had hoped to receive himself.”Who is Henri Bontenbal?Bontenbal is a rising star in Dutch politics. In 2024, he was named Dutch Politician of the Year, sharing the title with Wilders. While in opposition to Wilders’ populists, Bontenbal successfully united both opposition and coalition votes to block several PVV proposals in the 2025 budget.CDA’s position on UkraineThe CDA condemns Russia’s invasion and supports programs aiding Ukraine. Before Bontenbal’s leadership, the party had been cautious about increasing defense spending in the EU and expanding military aid to Ukraine, though it supported aid in principle. Under Bontenbal, the party shifted its approach, backing initiatives like ReArm Europe, voting to increase military aid to Ukraine, and urging the government to “continue to show leadership in supporting Ukraine.”A young politician who failed to enter parliament in 2021 could now upend Wilders’ plans. Even if Wilders wins again, he risks being the “loser among the winners.”