Everyone wants to understand what will happen next because the previous, most likely "freeze" scenario has been rejected by Putin.I am sharing the latest scenario modeling using the "Monte Carlo" method (with the help of deep AI models, over 1,000 scenario variants were processed) to identify the most likely developments for the near future.The meeting between the presidents of Ukraine and the U.S. turned out to be significantly more difficult than expected.According to leading international media, Ukraine did not receive the Tomahawk missiles that were mentioned in previous public statements.Instead, Trump proposed a cessation of hostilities on the current front line – a position that Kyiv has repeatedly (!) rejected.At the same time, an important event took place."Immediately after the meeting, European leaders issued coordinated statements of unconditional support for Ukraine."This is a signal that Europe is ready to compensate for a possible weakening of American support.Balance of power: reality of October 2025Military situation — Russia controls about 19% of Ukraine's territory (~115,000 km²).The pace of the Russian advance has slowed to 168 square miles per month – which is slower (!) than the offensive on the Somme in World War I.The front line is well-fortified, and major breakthroughs are unlikely. "Losses are colossal: it is estimated that Russia has lost about 1 million personnel, killed and wounded (for comparison, this is 15 times more than the USSR lost in 10 years of war in Afghanistan)."Energy war – critical factorHere, the situation is dynamic and underestimated by many analysts.Russia's strikes on Ukraine:about 64% of generating capacity destroyed;60% of gas production facilities damaged;the energy system is operating at one-third of its pre-war capacity.Ukraine's strikes on Russia – our strategic leverage:since August 2025, Ukraine has sharply intensified strikes on Russian oil refineries;about 30% of Russian oil refining capacity has been disabled or damaged;30 successful strikes confirmed in two months (3 per week);damages to the Russian economy exceed $714 million.Ukraine's long-range capabilities – strategic shiftUkraine possesses drones with a range of 2,000-3,000 km.These are not theoretical developments – strikes on Tatarstan, Dagestan, and the Leningrad region have been confirmed.In 2024, 377 targets on Russian territory were destroyed.Key points:Ukraine plans to produce 30,000 long-range drones in 2025;this allows for attacks on military-industrial facilities, oil refineries, and warehouses deep within Russia without Western missiles.We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation taking into account:military balance;economic capabilities;international support;energy vulnerability anddiplomatic pressure.Scenario 1: Protracted war of attrition (45% probability)The Budapest meeting between Trump and Putin will not yield a breakthrough.Russia will continue its slow advance and massive strikes on our energy infrastructure.Ukraine will respond by intensifying drone strikes at a depth of up to 2,000 km on Russian oil refineries, military factories, and warehouses.The key factor is energy escalation."If Ukraine increases the pace to 4-5 successful (!) strikes per week, 50-60% of Russia's refining capacity could be disabled by February 2026. This would create a critical fuel situation for the Russian army and economy."Role of Europe:It will increase support, compensating for US fluctuations.Possible provision of Tomahawk analogues from European manufacturers.Time horizon - 12-18 months.By the spring of 2026, the cumulative effect could force Moscow to the negotiating table.Scenario 2: Freezing conflict at current positions (30% probability)Pressure from Trump, exhaustion on both sides, and European security guarantees lead to a truce.Critical conditions for Ukraine:firm security guarantees from the EU and key NATO countries;economic support for reconstruction;retention of armaments and mobilization potential.Risks:Russia will use the pause to rebuild its forces. Without NATO membership, the threat of a new invasion remains.Time horizon: 3-6 months of negotiations.Scenario 3: Limited escalation with arrival of Western long-range systems (18% probability)Prerequisites: Failure of the Budapest negotiations + new massive Russian attacks on civilian targets.Options:Trump provides a limited number of Tomahawks (20-50 units);European countries purchase Storm Shadow/SCALP through the PURL mechanism and transfer them to Ukraine;Germany, France, and the United Kingdom create a "long-range coalition."Consequences:Ukraine gains the ability to strike critical targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. This could accelerate negotiations.Scenarios 4-5: Extreme options (7% total)Collapse of one of the sides due to internal or external factors. Unlikely in the short term due to the stabilization of the front and international support.Conclusions and recommendations1. The energy war is the key (!) to victory.Our ability to systematically strike Russian energy infrastructure at a depth of 2000+ km is the strategic leverage that can change the course of the war.We need to:increase the production of long-range drones;improve the accuracy and effectiveness of strikes;coordinate strikes with European partners.2. Europe is our main partner.The reaction of European leaders after the October 17 meeting shows: the EU is ready to take a leading role in supporting Ukraine. This opens up new opportunities for obtaining weapons and security guarantees.3. Trump is hesitating – this creates windows of opportunity. Washington's position is unstable.Every massive Russian strike on civilians or a successful Ukrainian operation could change the decision regarding Tomahawks or other systems.4. The Budapest meeting is not the end. The meeting between Trump and Putin is unlikely to lead to a breakthrough.Putin will try to buy time. It is important for Ukraine to continue military pressure and active diplomacy with Europe."5. Prepare for a long war. The most likely scenario (45%) is the continuation of the war for another 12-18 months with increasing intensity of the energy confrontation."This requires the mobilization of all resources and strategic endurance.SummaryThe October 17 meeting was not a catastrophe, but it also did not bring the expected breakthrough.Ukraine finds itself in a situation where it needs to rely more on its own forces and European partners than on the United States.The good news (!). Our long-range capabilities give us a tool to influence Russia, independent of Washington's decisions.Systematic strikes on Russia's energy and military-industrial complex can create a cumulative effect that, in 12-18 months, will force Moscow into real negotiations.The war will continue, but the initiative has not been lost.The key to victory is endurance, European alliances, and the effective use of our long-range capabilities.SourceAbout the author. Anatolii Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.