1. As of now, the opposition has, according to various estimates, between 150 and 170 votes (half of which are former members of the Servant of the People party). In the coming days, it will become clear which way the scales will tip. But for now, the parliament is a key point of tension."A new coalition has every chance of being formed, with a corresponding change of the speaker and the government."2. The President's Office has practically bet everything on Istanbul. But there is a minimal probability that the negotiations in Istanbul will be productive. The Russians will not be there. The most we can get is a conversation with Witkoff. Ankara will play a pro-American game. The outcome of these negotiations is a key point for understanding how events will develop further.3. Everything that can be heard from across the ocean points to a desire for a blitzkrieg. The conciliatory signals we heard from the Europeans at the end of last week were clearly not supported in Washington.4. Besides the war, the main problem today is the threat of a large-scale "Italian strike" (work-to-rule) by the bureaucracy. Governability is a fundamental problem for the coming weeks.5. The main unanswered question is who will pressure Putin to agree to peace, and how.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.