It is reasonable to assume that the Russian leadership is placing its main hopes on the imminent collapse of the “Ukrainian front.” From the very first days of the invasion, they tied their vision of victory to this outcome. After that, they believe, the rest would be easy: Ukraine’s leadership would quickly sign, and Ukrainians would just as quickly accept, the Kremlin’s terms.But even before the invasion, it was evident that even if the “Ukrainian front collapses,” all of Russia’s follow-up plans would still be only its own assumptions.A few key points are worth noting.First, signing anything under coercion would not guarantee its implementation."At least tens of thousands of highly motivated Ukrainians see this war not simply as a necessary defense against another Russian attack, but as a legitimate opportunity to finally dismantle the Russian state. As long as these people are alive, they will work toward this goal."Second, Russia lacks the resources to maintain direct control over today’s Ukraine to secure the installation of its desired political regime. The task is simply too big for the current Russian state to swallow.Third, even under the worst circumstances, the war would continue in another form — one no less difficult for Russia than the current fighting, and potentially even more exhausting.And one more point: while Western media speculate about when the “Ukrainian front” might collapse, Western policymakers should be thinking about how to act when Russia collapses.SourceAbout the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.